Why is the MLB Draft So Unpredictable Compared to Other Sports?

I’ve always been curious about why the MLB Draft feels way more hit-or-miss than the NFL or NBA drafts. Obviously, baseball’s farm system makes things more complicated, and player development takes longer, but it seems like even first-round picks have a much higher chance of not panning out compared to other sports.

Is it just the sheer number of rounds and prospects? The difficulty of projecting high school players versus college players? The fact that minor league development can be so unpredictable? It feels like in football and basketball, if you’re a top pick, there’s a decent chance you’ll at least be a solid pro. But in baseball, you see first-rounders fizzle out all the time, while late-round picks can turn into superstars.

Would love to hear thoughts from people who follow the draft closely—what makes scouting and drafting in baseball such a crapshoot?